Oh, you thought CWB was pretty busy already? You ain’t seen nothing yet. The island’s shopping district is about to explode. By Shirley Zhao

Vincent Ng Wing-shun, vice president of the Hong Kong Institute of Urban Design, proposes a solution: increase pedestrian zones and restrict private cars on roads in the shopping areas. “Just ask yourself one question – is the city designed for cars or for people?” he asks. “Hong Kong’s public transport system is one of the most convenient and complete in the world. You exit the Causeway Bay MTR station and every corner of the whole district is within walking distance. By restricting private cars, the air quality will also be improved and we will have more space to grow trees. More pedestrian zones will also attract more street performers and encourage all kinds of street activities, making the district more diversified and lively.

Ng also suggests the government builds more underground tunnels and even underground shopping centres to ease traffic flow on the ground, citing Japan as an example.

The suggestions may divert the crowds and improve Causeway Bay’s environment, but the modernisation of the district is likely to continue, making the neighbourhood less ‘local’ all the time. “Sometimes you feel lost on Causeway Bay’s main streets,” Ng reflects. “And you ask yourself if this place still belongs to us. But when you stroll along the backstreets and alleyways you still see mom and pop shops and small restaurants. And grannies continue ‘beating the petty person’ [a Cantonese tradition to cast people’s bad luck away] under Ngo Keng Kiu bridge.”

Ng lived in Causeway Bay in the 1960s until the fourth year of primary school. His childhood memories are always connected with the district’s Japanese department store Daimaru and its many theatres such as Jade and Pearl Theatre, Roxy Theatre, New York Theatre, President Theatre and Hoover Theatre, when the Causeway Bay Typhoon Shelter was crowded with boats and Paterson Street ran all the way to the harbour, where you could buy fresh fish directly from the boat dwellers.

After Ng moved out, more Japanese department stores opened there, including Matsuzakaya, Mitsukoshi and Sogo. Then, one after another, they turned into shopping malls, boat dwellers disappeared and theatres turned into more shopping malls and residential buildings.

According to Ng, the biggest changes to Causeway Bay have always been due to the operation of the market, rather than an overhaul in urban design. “The changes in Causeway Bay are hooked with social economy,” he says. “It’s natural, just like people growing old. Some things vanish. It’s the metabolism of a city.”

“Causeway Bay’s changes and growth are gradual and organic,” says Ng. Maybe we’re just seeing that process accelerate, now…

Hysan Place’s arrival will see a consolidation of CWB’s renowned young, hipster demographic. There are already the hidden shops in the heights of the Island Beverley, underground in Ginza and Apple Malls, and in the walk-ups along Lockhart Road. And, in Hysan Place, there’s a new destination for ‘fun-loving and trendy’ Hongkongers, with some of the brands, such as GAP, Hollister and Taiwanese bookstore Eslite, focusing on younger customers.

But the most significant change to the Causeway Bay demographic, in experts’ eyes, will come at the luxury end of the spectrum, driven on by our most obvious of sources: Mainlanders.

“Causeway Bay’s landlords are doing a lot of work to develop, modernise and shape the area to be the shopping Mecca of Hong Kong island, in order to attract more Mainland tourists,” says Marcos Chan, head of research of the Greater Pearl River Delta at Jones Lang LaSalle, the world’s second-largest commercial brokerage.

It’s hardly a surprise. Over the past few years, we’ve seen the transformation from small, local shops and the smell of dried seafood to the glittering window-fronts flaunting handbags, jewellery and watches, largely catering for the luxury end. But this trend runs a lot deeper than the simple Mainlander answer: at the more moneyed end of the spectrum. It appears the future of Causeway Bay is one as a centre for a more affluent crowd.

The cause is twofold. According to Chan, the addition of the new offices at Hysan Place and several other ongoing commercial projects will help bring in a high-income working population, providing support for the local food and drinks industry and other lifestyle retailing. “The new office supply,” he says, “will help strengthen Causeway Bay’s position as a feasible office location for the banking, finance and professional services sector.”

The comparatively high rents in Central may also see more companies turning to Wan Chai, Causeway Bay and Island East for more affordable offices. “Causeway Bay as a whole will be less affected,” says Chan, “as the vacancy rate is still very low. Even with new supply coming up, it is unlikely to lead to significant rental corrections.”

Then there’s the three new residential projects, to be completed between this year and 2014 in Causeway Bay, providing a total of 450 units. Says Chan: “This will help bring in a group of high-income individuals and families as residents and create some positive spins for retail, particularly for fine dining and other food and drinks outlets.”

Or, in short: more money, more entertainment, more shopping and more people. It’s what Causeway Bay has always been about – and that truth is only going to get more acute.